Deepwater Horizon: The Worst-Case, Best-case, and Most-Likely Scenarios

Reports from the Gulf of Mexico just keep getting worse. Estimates of the rate of oil spillage from the Deepwater Horizon wellhead continue gushing (the latest official number: up to 60,000 barrels per day, with BP now saying the maximum potential leakage rate could be 100,000 b/d). Forecasts for how long it will take before the leak is finally plugged are pluming toward August—maybe even December. In addition to the oil itself, BP has (in this case deliberately) spilled a million gallons of toxic Corexit dispersant. Biologists’ accounts of the devastation being wreaked on fish, birds, amphibians, turtles, coral reefs, and marshes grow more apocalyptic by the day—especially in view of the fact that the vast majority of animal victims die alone and uncounted.

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